Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
