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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I can’t remember ever being so confident at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change a-coming, coming around the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.