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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.