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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.